The correlation between demographic development and land-use changes in Slovenia

Abstract

The paper focuses on determining the degree of correlation between land-use changes and demographic development in Slovenia. The authors conclude that there is still insufficient evidence in the literature for a correlation between these two processes, because quantitative studies addressing these links are very rare and mostly cover small and specific areas. In the case of Slovenia, Spearman’s correlation coefficients are quite low, which confirms that land-use change processes are complex and not dependent solely on individual demographic and socioeconomic factors. Despite the low correlation coefficients, our findings indicate that changes in land use are significantly influenced by changes in age structure and population growth. In areas with population growth the share of arable land is shrinking, whereas in areas with depopulation and a rising aging index the share of partially overgrown land is growing. In the following analysis, the authors focus their analysis on a case study of the Mura and Central Slovenia statistical regions, which lie on opposite poles with regard to development, and thus show differing trends in land-use changes.