Predicting the potential ecological niche distribution of Slovenian forests under climate change using MaxEnt modelling

Tim Gregorčič; Andrej Rozman; Blaž Repe

doi:10.3986/AGS.11561

Authors

Tim Gregorčič
Andrej Rozman University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, Department of Forestry and Renewable Forest Resources, Ljubljana, Slovenia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0797-5452
Blaž Repe University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Arts, Department of Geography, Ljubljana, Slovenia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5530-4840

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3986/AGS.11561

Keywords:

phytogeography, ecological niche modelling, shared socio-economic pathways (SSP), forest vegetation types, Slovenia

Abstract

The aim of the article is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on Slovenian forests in the period 2080–2100 based on two climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic) using the MaxEnt software. Slovenian forests are divided at the ecological community level into thirteen forest vegetation types. Analyses of changes in ecological niche areas, distances of vectors between centroids of present areas and future ecological niches, and general spatial changes are carried out. In addition, changes in the altitudinal zones of forest vegetation types were investigated. The results indicate significant changes for Thermophilous beech forests and Thermophilous hop-hornbeam, sessile oak, downy oak, Scots pine and black pine forests. The potential changes in the altitudinal zones of forest vegetation types indicate a clear trend of forest vegetation types moving to higher altitudinal zones.

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