Transferability of a predictive Robinia pseudacacia distribution model in northeast Slovenia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3986/AGS.772Keywords:
geography, invasive species, landscape features, species distribution model, transferability, PrekmurjeAbstract
The main goal of this study is to assess the transferability of a species distribution model (SDM) for Robinia pseudacacia (black locust) to two testing sites in the Prekmurje region in northeast Slovenia. The predictive performance of the SDM at the testing sites was measured by 1) visual evaluation, 2) confusion matrix, 3) true positive rate (TPR), 4) the maximum of the true skill statistics (TSS) over possible cutoffs, and 5) paired-sample ANOVA. We show that the model adequately predicted potential distribution of the species in the region, which ensures that extension of the prediction at this scale will be a reliable base for nature conservation decisions. This also serves as a positive example for within-region transfer and extension of SDMs.Downloads
References
Allouche, O., Tsoar, A., Kadmon, R. 2006: Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of applied ecology 43. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x
Araújo, M. B., Whittaker, R. J., Ladle, R., Erhard, M. 2005: Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change. Global ecology and biogeography 14. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-822X.2005.00182.x
Barbosa, A. M., Real, R.,Vargas, J. M. 2009: Transferability of environmental favourability models in geographic space: The case of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in Portugal and Spain. Ecological modelling 220. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOLMODEL.2008.12.004
Ciglič, R. 2009: Slovenija v naravnogeografskih členitvah Evrope. Geografski vestnik 81-2.
Ciglič, R., Perko, D. 2013: Europe's landscape hotspots. Acta geographica Slovenica 53-1. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3986/AGS53106
Ciglič, R., Oštir, K. 2014: Application of MODIS products to analyze forest phenophases in relation to elevation and distance from sea. Journal of applied remote sensing 8-1. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.8.083669
Cunder, T. 2009: Kmetijstvo v Pomurju danes in jutri. Pomurje: Trajnostni regionalni razvoj ob reki Muri. Zbornik povzetkov. Ljutomer.
Čarni, A., Košir, P., Marinček, L., Marinšek, A., Šilc, U., Zelnik, I. 2008: Komentar k vegetacijski karti gozdnih združb Slovenije v merilu 1:50.000 – list Murska Sobota. Murska Sobota.
D’Antonio, C. M., Vitousek, P. M. 1992: Biological invasions by exotic grasses, the grass-fire cycle, and global change. Annual review of ecology and systematics 23. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.23.110192.000431
D'Antonio, C. M., Mack, M. 2001: Exotic grasses potentially slow invasion of an N-fixing tree into a Hawaiian woodland. Biological invasions 3-1. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1023/A:1011470702428
Državna topografska karta 1 : 5000. Geodetska uprava Republike Slovenije. Ljubljana, 2009.
Fielding, A. H., Bell, J. F. 1997: A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence / absence models. Environmental conservation 24. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0376892997000088
Fukasawa, K., Koike, F., Tanaka, N. 2009: Predicting future invasion of an invasive alien tree in a Japanese oceanic island by process-based statistical models using recent distribution maps. Ecological research 24-5. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11284-009-0595-4
Gabrovec, M., Kladnik, D. 1997: Some new aspects of land use in Slovenia. Geografski zbornik 37.
Globevnik, L., Kaligarič, M. 2005: Hydrological changes of the Mura River in Slovenia, accompanied with habitat deterioration in riverine space. RMZ – Materials and geoenvironment 52-1.
Globevnik, L., Mikoš, M. 2009: Boundary conditions of morphodynamic processes in the Mura River in Slovenia. Catena 79-3. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2009.06.008
Guisan, A. and Thuiller, W. 2005: Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology letters 8-9. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x
Guisan, A., Tingley, R., Baumgartner, J. B., Naujokaitis-Lewis, I., Sutcliffe, P. R., Tulloch, A. I. T., Regan, T. J., Brotons, L., McDonald-Madden, E., Mantyka-Pringle, C., Martin, T. G., Rhodes, J. R., Maggini, R., Setterfield, S. A., Elith, J., Schwartz, M. W., Wintle, B. A., Broennimann, O., Austin, M., Ferrier, S., Kearney, M. R., Possingham, H. P., Buckley, Y. M. 2013: Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions. Ecology letters 16-12. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ELE.12189
Gurevitch, J., Scheiner, S. M., Fox, G. A. 2006: The ecology of plants. Sunderland.
Hejda, M., Pyšek, P. 2006: What is the impact of Impatiens glandulifera on species diversity of invaded riparian vegetation? Biological conservation 132. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2006.03.025
Higgins, S. I., Richardson, D. M., Cowling, R. M., Trinder-Smith, T. H. 1999: Predicting the landscape-scale distribution of alien plants and their threat to plant diversity. Conservation biology 13-2. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.1999.013002303.x
Hladnik, D. 2005: Spatial Structure of Disturbed Landscapes in Slovenia. Ecological Engineering 24, 1−2. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2004.12.004
Jogan, N. 2000: Neofiti-rastline pritepenke. Proteus 63-1.
Košir, P., Čarni, A., Marinšek, A., Šilc, U. 2013: Floodplain forest communities along the Mura River (NE Slovenia). Acta botanica Croatica 72-1. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10184-012-0015-7
Kutnar, L., Kobler, A. 2013: Sedanje stanje razširjenosti robinije (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) v Sloveniji in napovedi za prihodnost. Acta silvae et ligni 102.
Kutnar, L., Pisek, R. 2013: Tujerodne in invazivne drevesne vrste v gozdovih Slovenije. Gozdarski vestnik 71-9.
Liu, J., Liang, S.-C., Liu, F.-H., Wang, R.-Q., Dong, M. 2005: Invasive alien plant species in China: regional distribution patterns. Diversity and distributions 11-4. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1366-9516.2005.00162.x
Lobo, J. M., Jiménez-Valverde, A., Real R. 2008: AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Global ecology and biogeography 17-2. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00358.x
Maggini, R., Lehmann, A., Zimmermann, N. E., Guisan, A. 2006: Improving generalized regression analysis for the spatial prediction of forest communities. Journal of biogeography 33-10. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01465.x
Mooney, H. A., Drake, J. A. 1989: Biological invasions: a Scope program overview. Biological invasions: a global perspective. Chichester.
Novice: gospodarske, obertniške in narodne. 1858: O seji akacije. Ljubljana.
Pedološka karta Slovenije 1 : 25.000. Ministrstvo za kmetijstvo in okolje. Ljubljana, 2007.
Perko, D., Orožen Adamič, M. 1998: Slovenija – pokrajina in ljudje. Ljubljana.
Peterson, A. T., Papes¸ M., Eaton, M. 2007: Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling: a comparison of GARP and Maxent. Ecography 30. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/ 0.1111/j.2007.0906-7590.05102.x
Pimentel, D. McNair, S., Janecka, J., Wightman, J., Simmonds, C., O’Connell, C., Wong, E., Russel, L., Zern, J., Aquino, T., Tsomondo, T. 2001: Economic and environmental threats of alien plant, animal, and microbe invasions. Agriculture, ecosystems & environment 84-1. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(00)00178-X
Pimentel, D. 2005: Environmental consequences and economic costs of alien species. Invasive plants: ecological and agricultural aspects. Basel.
Pinheiro, J., Bates, D., DebRoy, S., Sarkar, D., R Core Team. 2014: nlme: linear and nonlinear mixed effects models. R package version 3.1-113.
Preuss, S., Cassel-Lundhagen, A., Berggren, Å. 2011: Modelling the distribution of the invasive Roesel’s bush-cricket (Metrioptera roeselii) in a fragmented landscape. NeoBiota 11. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.11.2060
R Development Core Team. 2008: A language and environment for statistical computing. R foundation for statistical computing. Vienna. Internet: http://www.R-project.org (5. 2. 2015).
Randin, C. F., Dirnböck, T., Dullinger, F., Zimmermann, N. E., Zappa, M., Guisan, A. 2006: Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space? Journal of biogeography 33-10. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01466.x
Razpotnik, N. 2007: Okoljevarstveno navskrižje habitatov ranljivih vrst ptic in električnega daljnovodnega omrežja. Geografski vestnik 79-2.
Ribeiro, D., Čarni, A., Somodi, I. 2011: Distribution patterns of the invasive species Robinia pseudacacia in NE Slovenia. Anali PAZU 1-1.
Rodríguez-Labajos, B., Binimelis, R., Monterroso, I. 2009: Multi-level driving forces of biological invasions. Ecological economics 69-1. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.08.022
Rudolf, S., Brus, R. 2006: Razširjenost in invazivnost robinije (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) v severovzhodni Sloveniji. Gozdarski vestnik 64-3.
Somodi, I., Virágh, K., Székely, B., Zimmermann, N. E. 2010: Changes in predictor influence with time and with vegetation type identity in a post-abandonment situation. Basic and applied ecology 11-3. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2009.11.006
Somodi, I., Čarni, A., Ribeiro, D. Podobnikar, T. 2012: Recognition of the invasive species Robinia pseudacacia from combined remote sensing and GIS sources. Biological conservation 150. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2012.02.014
Sundblad, G., Härmä, M., Lappalainen, A., Urho, L., Bergström, U. 2009: Transferability of predictive fish distribution models in two coastal systems. Estuarine, coastal and shelf science 83-1. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2009.03.025
Vanderhoof, M., Holzman, B. A., Rogers, C. 2009: Predicting the distribution of perennial pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium), San Francisco Bay area, California. Invasive plant science and management 2-3. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1614/IPSM-09-005.1
Verbruggen, H., Tyberghein, L., Belton, G. S., Mineur, F., Jueterbock, A., Hoarau, G., Gurgel, C. F. D., De Clerck, O. 2013: Improving transferability of introduced species’ distribution models: new tools to forecast the spread of a highly invasive seaweed. PLoS ONE 8-6. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068337
Vitousek, P. M. 1994: Beyond global warming: ecology and global change. Ecology 75-7. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1941591
Vitousek, P. M., D’Antonio, C. M., Loope, L. L., Rejmánek, M., Westbrooks, R. 1996: Biological invasions as global environmental change. American scientist 84-5.
Vovk Korže, A. 2002: Vpliv značilnosti prsti na razčirjenost biokmetijskih zemljišč v Prekmurje. Geografski vestnik 74-1.
Walker, L. R., Vitousek, P. M. 1991: An invader alters germination and growth of a native dominant tree in Hawaii. Ecology 72-4.
Wenger, S. J., Olden, J. D. 2012: Assessing transferability of ecological models: an
underappreciated aspect of statistical validation. Methods in ecology and evolution 3. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2011.00170.x
Wilcove, D. S., Rothstein, D., Dubow, J., Phillips, A., Losos, E. 1998: Quantifying threats to imperiled species in the United States: Assessing the relative importance of habitat destruction, alien species, pollution, overexploitation and disease. Bioscience 48-8. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1313420
Wraber, M. 1951: Gozdna vegetacijska slika in gozdnogojitveni problem Prekmurje. Geografski vestnik 23.
Zelnik, I. 2012: Invasive alien plant species in different habitats. Acta biologica Slovenica 55-2.
Zimmermann, N. E., Kienast, F. 1999: Predictive mapping of alpine grasslands in Switzerland: Species versus community approach. Journal of vegetation science 10-4. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3237182
Zemljiški kataster. Geodetska uprava Republike Slovenije. Ljubljana, 2009.
Žvikart, M. 2010: Uresničevanje varstvenih ciljev iz programa upravljanja območij Natura 2000 v kmetijski kulturni krajini. Varstvo Narave 24.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
