Ocena možnih vplivov podnebnih sprememb na prostorsko razporeditev ekoloških niš slovenskih gozdov z uporabo metode maksimalne entropije
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3986/AGS.11561Ključne besede:
fitogeografija, modeliranje ekoloških niš, smeri skupnega družbenogospodarskega razvoja (SSP), gozdni rastiščni tipi, SlovenijaPovzetek
Namen raziskave je bil oceniti možne vplive podnebnih sprememb na slovenske gozdove v obdobju 2080-2100 glede na dva podnebna scenarija: SSP1-2.6 (optimistični) in SSP5-8.5 (pesimistični) z metodo maksimalne entropije. Gozdni rastiščni tipi so razdeljeni na trinajst gozdnih vegetacijskih tipov. Opravljeni sta analizi prostorskih sprememb ekoloških niš in razdalj vektorjev med centroidi sedanjih območij in napovedanih ekoloških niš ter sinteza skupnih možnih prostorskih sprememb gozdnih vegetacijskih tipov. Raziskane so tudi možne spremembe sestave vegetacijskih pasov. Rezultati kažejo na možnost znatnih sprememb ekoloških niš. Največje skupne prostorske spremembe so bile ocenjene za termofilna bukovja in termofilna črnogabrovja, hrastovja, rdečeborovja in črnoborovja. Rezultati analize možnih sprememb vegetacijskih pasov kažejo trend pomikanja v višje nadmorske višine.
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