The influence of climate change on discharge fluctuations in Slovenian rivers
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3986/AGS.9942Keywords:
hydrology, geography, trend analysis, Mann Kendall test, discharges, SloveniaAbstract
In recent decades, an increase in the number of extreme flood events as well as extreme drought events has been observed in Slovenia. This rise the need for a comprehensive analysis of trends in discharge data series. In the study, statistical trends in seasonal and annual mean, maximum, extreme and low discharge values were investigated using the Mann Kendall test. The results show a temporal and spatial variability of trends in discharge. In general, a decreasing trend in water quantities in the rivers was observed. However, results at some gauging stations indicate statistically significant increasing trends, especially for maximum and extreme discharges. Additional analyses show that the discharge trends depend on the location of the gauging station.
Downloads
References
Arhiv hidroloških podatkov. Ministrstvo za okolje in proctor, Agencija Republike Slovenije za okolje. Ljubljana, 2017. Internet: http://vode.arso.gov.si/hidarhiv (12. 2. 2017).
Bezak, N., Brilly, M., Šraj, M. 2014: Comparison between the peaks-over-threshold method and the annual maximum method for flood frequency analysis. Hydrological Sciences Journal 59-5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831174
Bezak, N., Brilly, M., Šraj, M. 2016: Flood frequency analyses, statistical trends and seasonality analyses of discharge data: A case study of the Litija station on the Sava River. Journal of Flood Risk Management 9-2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12118
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R. A. P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D. et al. 2019: Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods. Nature 573. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6
Cunja, J., Kobold, M., Šraj, M. 2019: Temporal and spatial analysis of the largest hydrological droughts in Slovenia. Ujma 33.
Cunja, J., Kobold, M., Šraj, M. 2020: Analysis of runoff deficit using the treshold method for the case of three gauging stations in Slovenia. Acta hydrotechnica 33-59. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15292/acta.hydro.2020.08
Douglas, E. M., Vogel, R. M., Kroll, C. N. 2000: Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: Impact of spatial correlation. Journal of Hydrology 240-1,2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00336-X
Fazarinc, R. 2014: Floods in October 2014 in the Ljubljana area. 25. Mišičev vodarski dan 2014. Maribor.
Frantar, P., Kobold, M., Ulaga, F. 2008: Discharge trends. Water balance of Slovenia 1971–2000. Ljubljana.
Frantar, P., Ulaga, F. 2015: High waters at the Planinsko polje in 2014. Ujma 29.
Golob, A., Polajnar, J. 2016: Visoke vode v Sloveniji leta 2015. Ujma 30.
Hall, J., Arheimer, B., Borga, M., Brázdil, R., Claps, P., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R. et al. 2014: Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: A state-of-the-art assessment. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014
Hrvatin, M., Zorn, M. 2017a: Trendi temperatur in padavin ter trendi pretokov rek v Idrijskem hribovju. Geografski vestnik 89-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3986/GV89101
Hrvatin, M., Zorn, M. 2017b. Trendi pretokov rek v slovenskih Alpah med letoma 1961 in 2010. Geografski vestnik 89-2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3986/GV89201
Jelen, M., Mikoš, M., Bezak, N. 2020: Karst springs in Slovenia: Trend analysis. Acta hydrotechnica 33-58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15292/acta.hydro.2020.01
Kajfež-Bogataj, L., Bergant, K. 2005: Podnebne spremembe v Sloveniji in suša. Ujma 19.
Kendall, M. G. 1975: Multivariate analysis. London.
Klaneček, M. 2013. 5. November floods in the Drava River Basin. Ujma 27.
Kobold, M. 2008: High waters and floods of 18 September 2007. Ujma 22.
Kobold, M., Dolinar, M., Frantar, P. 2012: Changes of water regime due to the climate change and anthropogenic influences. Proceedings of the first conference on waters in Slovenia. Ljubljana.
Komac, B., Zorn, M. 2020: Pomen negradbenih ukrepov za poplavno varnost. Geografski vestnik 92-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3986/GV92106
Kovačič, G. 2016: Trendi pretokov rek jadranskega povodja v Sloveniji brez Posočja. Geografski vestnik 88-2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3986/GV88201
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Graczyk, D., Maurer, T., Pińskwar, I., Radziejewski, M., Svensson, C., Szwed, M. 2005: Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow. Hydrological Sciences Journal 50-5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.2005.50.5.797
Maček, U., Bezak, N., Šraj, M. 2018: Reference evapotranspiration changes in Slovenia, Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 260-261. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.06.014
McLeod, A. I. 2011: Kendall: Kendall rank correlation and Mann-Kendall trend test. R package version 2.2. Internet: http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=Kendall (16. 5. 2017).
Mediero, L., Kjeldsen, T. R., Macdonald, N., Kohnova, S., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Wilson, D. et al. 2015: Identification of coherent flood regions across Europe by using the longest streamflow records. Journal of Hydrology 528. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.016
Ocena tveganja za sušo. Ministrstvo za okolje in proctor, Agencija Republike Slovenije za okolje. Ljubljana, 2017. Internet: http://meteo.arso.gov.si/uploads/probase/www/agromet/OT/Ocena_tveganja_Susa_DOPOLNJENA_PS.pdf (9. 2. 2021).
R Core Team 2013. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Vienna. Internet: URL http://www.R-project.org/. (16. 5. 2017).
Radziejewski, M. 2011: Hydrospect 2.0. Internet: http://en.informer.com/hydrospect/2.0/ (10. 3. 2017).
Roškar J. 2015. BOBER. Nadgradnja sistema za spremljanje in analiziranje stanja vodnega okolja v Sloveniji. Vetrnica 30.
Šebenik, U., Brilly, M., Šraj, M. 2017: Drought analysis using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Acta geographica Slovenica 57-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3986/AGS.729
Šraj, M., Bezak, N. 2020: Comparison of time trend- and precipitation-informed models for assessing design discharges in variable climate. Journal of Hydrology 589. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125374
Šraj, M., Menih, M., Bezak, N. 2016: Climate variability impact assessment on the flood risk in Slovenia. Physical Geography 37-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.2016.1155389
Šraj, M., Mikoš, M., Bezak, N. 2019: Hidrometeorološki ekstremi in vrednotenje njihovih sprememb na osnovi merjenih podatkov. 30. Mišičev vodarski dan 2019. Maribor.
Šraj, M., Viglione, A., Parajka, J., Blöschl, G. 2016: The influence of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological events on flood frequency estimation. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics 64-4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/johh-2016-0032
Stahl, K., Hisdal, H., Hannaford, J., Tallaksen, L. M., van Lanen, H. A. J, Sauquet, E., Demuth, S. et al. 2010: Streamflow trends in Europe: Evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14-12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2367-2010
Strojan, I., Kobold, M., Polajnar, J., Šupek, M., Pogačnik, N., Jeromel, M., Petan, S. et al. 2010: Floods from 17 to 21 September 2010. 21. Mišičev vodarski dan 2010. Maribor.
Strupczewski, W. G., Singh, V. P., Feluch, W. 2001: Non-stationary approach to at-site flood frequency modelling I. Maximum likelihood estimation. Journal of Hydrology 248-1,2,3,4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00397-3
Sušnik, A., Gregorič, G., Uhan, J., Kobold, M., Andjelov, M., Petan, S., Pavlič, U., Valher, A., 2013: Drought variability in Slovenia and analysis of drought in 2013. 24. Mišičev vodarski dan 2013. Maribor.
Yue, S., Pilon, P., Cavadias, G. 2002: Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of Hydrology 259-1,2,3,4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00594-7
Zorn, M., Komac, B. 2011: Damage caused by natural disasters in Slovenia and global between 1995 and 2010. Acta geographica Slovenica 51-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3986/AGS51101
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
