Precipitation variability, trends and regions in Poland: Temporal and spatial distribution in the years 1951–2018

Keywords: climate change, precipitation conditions, number of days with precipitation, precipitation regions, Poland

Abstract

The goals of this work were to assess differences in precipitation totals (Pr) in Poland in both time and space and to distinguish regions based on precipitation variability in the years 1951–2018. To assess precipitation conditions, the study used statistical and spatial analyses implemented in ArcGIS Desktop and STATISTICA software. The largest number of significant, positive correlations describing the linear Pr trend were found for March. The lowest monthly Pr, which represents only approximately 6% of the multiyear precipitation totals, was recorded in October 1951; the highest monthly Pr, which represents as much as approximately 355% of the multi-year precipitation totals, was recorded in October 1974. The study distinguished three precipitation regions of Poland.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Beck, H. E., Zimmermann, N. E., McVicar, T. R., Vergopolan, N., Berg, A., Wood, E. F. 2018: Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution. Scientific Data 5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.214

Bochenek, W. 2020: Prawidłowości obiegu wody na obszarze beskidzko-pogórskim Karpat Zachodnich na przykładzie zlewni Bystrzanki w świetle zmian klimatu i działalności człowieka. Prace Geograficzne 271. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7163/9788361590XXX

Bokwa, A., Skowera, B. 2008: Wpływ rzeźby i użytkowania terenu na strukturę opadów atmosferycznych w okolicach Krakowa (1971–2005). Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich 5. Internet: http://agro.icm.edu.pl/agro/element/bwmeta1.element.agro-3a1e6917-3a41-4d29-8adc-65726f69d93c (21. 1. 2021).

Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Trnka, M., Řezníčková, L., Dolák, L., Kotyza, O. 2019: Extreme droughts and human responses to them: the Czech lands in the pre-instrumental period. Climate of the Past 15-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1-2019

Caloiero, T., Caloiero, P., Frustaci, F. 2018: Long-term precipitation trend analysis in Europe and in the Mediterranean basin. Water and Environment Journal 32-3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/wej.12346

Chu, E., Anguelovski, I., Roberts, D. 2017: Climate adaptation as strategic urbanism: assessing opportunities and uncertainties for equity and inclusive development in cities. Cities 60. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2016.10.016

Degirmendžić, J., Kożuchowski, K., Żmudzka, E. 2004: Changes of air temperature and precipitation in Poland in the period 1951–2000 and their relationship to atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology 24-3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1010

Dumrul, Y., Kilicarslan, Z. 2017: Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: empirical evidence from ARDL approach for Turkey. Journal of Business, Economics and Finance 6-4. DOI: http://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.766

Halimatou, T. A., Kalifa, T., Kyei-Baffour, N. 2017: Assessment of changing trends of daily precipitation and temperature extremes in Bamako and Ségou in Mali from 1961–2014. Weather and Climate Extremes 18. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.09.002

Hardoy, J., Hernández, I., Pacheco, J. A., Sierra, G. 2014: Institutionalizing climate change adaptation at municipal and state level in Chetumal and Quintana Roo, Mexico. Environment and Urbanization 26-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247813519053

Hundecha, Y., Bárdossy, A. 2005: Trends in daily precipitation and temperature extremes across western Germany in the second half of the 20th century. International Journal of Climatology 25-9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1182

Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., Lewandowski, P. 2015: Long-term air temperature and precipitation variability in the Warta River catchment area. Journal of Water and Land Development 27. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jwld-2015-0019

IMWM – Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. 2020. Internet: https://danepubliczne.imgw.pl/apiinfo (18.05.2021).

IPCC 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, New York.

Kalbarczyk, E., Kalbarczyk, R. 2020a: Typology of climate change adaptation measures in Polish cities up to 2030. Land 9-10. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/land9100351

Kalbarczyk, R. 2010: Temporal and spatial diversity of the occurrence of atmospheric drought in Poland (1966–2005) and its effect of yield of pickling cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.). Spanish Journal of Agricultural Reserach 8-4.

Kalbarczyk, R., Kalbarczyk, E. 2020b: Meteorological conditions of the winter-time distribution of nitrogen oxides in Poznań: A proposal for a catalog of the pollutants variation. Urban Climate 33. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100649

Kalbarczyk, R., Kalbarczyk, E., Raszka, B. 2011: Risk to onion (Allium cepa L.) field cultivation in Poland from precipitation deficiency. Notulae Botanicae Horti Agrobotanici Cluj-Napoca 39-2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15835/nbha3926351

Kalbarczyk, R., Kalbarczyk, E., Ziemiańska, M., Raszka, B. 2018: Assessment of air thermal conditions in the lowland part of south-western Poland for agriculture development purposes. Atmosphere 9-6. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9060215

Kivinen, S., Rasmus, S., Jylhä, K., Laapas, M. 2017: Long-term climate trends and extreme events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013). Climate 5-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5010016

Krause, P., Hanisch, S. 2007: Prognostic simulation and analysis of the impact of climate change on the hydrological dynamics in Thuringia, Germany. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-4-4037-2007

Kuchar, L., Iwański, S. 2013: Rainfall evaluation for crop production until 2050–2060 and selected climate change scenarios for north central Poland. Infrastruktura i Ekologia Terenów Wiejskich 1. Internet: http://www.infraeco.pl/en/art/a_17197.htm (21.01.2021).

Kundzewicz, Z. W., Kozyra, J. 2011: Ograniczanie wpływu zagrożeń klimatycznych w odniesieniu do rolnictwa i obszarów wiejskich. Reducing impacts of climatic threats to agriculture and rural areas. Polish Journal of Agronomy 7. Internet: http://www.iung.pulawy.pl/PJA/wydane/7/PJA7_7.pdf (21.01.2021).

Kundzewicz, Z. W., Radziejewski, M., Pińskwar, I. 2006: Precipitation extremes in the changing climate of Europe. Climate Reserach 31-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr031051

Květoň, V., Žák, M. 2008: Extreme precipitation events in the Czech Republic in the context of climate change. Advances in Geosciences 14. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-14-251-2008

Labudová, L., Faško, P., Ivaňáková, G. 2015: Changes in climate and changing climate regions in Slovakia. Moravian Geographical Reports 23-3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/mgr-2015-0019

Łupikasza, E. B. 2017: Seasonal patterns and consistency of extreme precipitation trends in Europe, December 1950 to February 2008. Climate Research 72-3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01467

Majewski, G., Przewoźniczuk, W., Kleniewska, M. 2010: Precipitation at the meteorological station in Ursynów WULS – SGGW in 1960–2009. Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences 48-2. Internet: http://iks_pn.sggw.pl/PN48/A1/art1.pdf (15. 12. 2020).

Marcinkowski, P., Piniewski, M. 2018: Effect of climate change on sowing and harvest dates of spring barley and maize in Poland. International Agrophysics 32. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/intag-2017-0015

Marković, S. B., Ruman, A., Gavrilov, M. B., Stevens, T., Zorn, M., Komac, B., Perko, D. 2014: Modeling of the Aral and Caspian seas drying out influence to climate and environmental changes. Acta geographica Slovenica 54-1. DOI: https://ojs.zrc-sazu.si/ags/article/view/1907/1658

Mezghani, A., Dobler, A., Haugen, J. E., Benestad, R. E., Parding, K. M., Piniewski, M., Kardel, I., Kundzewicz, Z. W. 2017: CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – Bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations. Earth System Science Data 9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-905-2017

Młyński, D., Cebulska, M., Wałęga, A. 2018: Trends, variability, and seasonality of maximum annual daily precipitation in the Upper Vistula Basin, Poland. Atmosphere 9-8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9080313

Olechnowicz-Bobrowska, B. 1970: Częstość dni z opadem w Polsce. Prace Geograficzne 86.

Olsson, J., Södling, J., Berg, P., Wern, L., Eronn, A. 2019: Short-duration rainfall extremes in Sweden: A regional analysis. Hydrology Research 50-3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2019.073

Pathak, T. B., Maskey, M. L., Dahlberg, J. A., Kearns, F., Bali, K. M., Zaccaria, D. 2018: Climate change trends and impacts on California agriculture: a detailed review. Agronomy 8-3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy8030025

Pedrozo-Acuña, A., Jorge, A., Magos-Hernández, J. A., Sánchez-Peralta, J. A., Amaro-Loza, A., Breña-Naranjo, A. 2017: Real-time and discrete precipitation monitoring in Mexico City: implementation and applicaton. International Symposium and Exhibition on Hydro-Environment Sensors and Software. Madrid.

Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C., Jacob, D. 2015: Robustness of ensemble climate projections analyzed with climate signal maps: seasonal and extreme precipitation for Germany. Atmosphere 6-5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos6050677

Radzka, E., Jankowski, K., Jankowska, J. 2019: Effects of rainfall shortage and climatic water balance on agriculture. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research 17-4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15666/aeer/1704_76677678

Reckien, D., Flacke, J., Olazabal, M., Heidrich, O. 2015: The influence of drivers and barriers on urban adaptation and mitigation plans–an empirical analysis of European cities. PLoS ONE 10-8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0135597

Schmuck, A. 1965: Regiony pluwiotermiczne Polski. Czasopismo Geograficzne 36-3.

Skowera, B., Kopcińska, J., Kopeć, B. 2014: Changes in thermal and precipitation conditions in Poland in 1971–2010. Annals of Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW, Land Reclamation 46-2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/sggw-2014-0013

Somorowska, U. 2016: Changes in drought conditions in Poland over the past 60 years evaluated by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index. Acta Geophysica 64. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/acgeo-2016-0110

Stefanova, A., Hesse, C., Krysanova, V., Volk, M. 2019: Assessment of Socio-Economic and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Four European Lagoon Catchments. Environmental Management 64. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-019-01188-1

Szewrański, S., Chruściński, J., Kazak, J., Świąder, M., Tokarczyk-Dorociak, K., Żmuda, R. 2018: Pluvial flood risk assessment tool (PFRA) for rainwater management and adaptation to climate change in newly urbanised areas. Water 10-4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040386

Szwed, M. 2018: Variability of precipitation in Poland under climate change. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 135. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2408-6

Szwed, M., Karg, G., Pińskwar, I., Radziejewski, M., Graczyk, D., Kędziora, A., Kundzewicz, Z. W. 2010: Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1725-2010

Szwejkowski, Z., Kuchar, L., Dragańska, E., Cymes, I., Cymes, I. 2017: Current and future agroclimate conditions in Poland in perspective of climate change. Acta Agrophysica 24-2. Internet: http://www.acta-agrophysica.org/Current-and-future-agroclimate-conditions-in-Poland-in-perspective-of-climate-change,105059,0,2.html (15. 2. 2020).

Šebenik, U., Brilly, M., Šraj, M. 2017: Drought analysis using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Acta geographica Slovenica 57-1. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3986/AGS.729

Tošić, I., Zorn, M., Ortar, J., Unkašević, M., Gavrilov, M. B., Marković, S. B. 2016: Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation and temperatures in Slovenia from 1961 to 2011. Atmospheric Research 168. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.09.014

Twardosz, R., Niedźwiedź, T., Łupikasza, E. 2011: The influence of atmospheric circulation on the type of precipitation (Krakow, southern Poland). Theoretical and Applied Climatology 104. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0340-5

Twaróg, B. 2016: Characteristics of long-term variability of precipitation in the territory of Poland based on GPCC data for the years 1901–2010. IOSR Journal of Environmental Science, Toxicology and Food Technology 10-10. DOI: https://doi.org/10.9790/2402-1010015064

Żarski, J., Dudek, S., Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R., Bojar W., Knopik, L., Żarski, W. 2014: Agroklimatyczna ocena opadów atmosferycznych okresu wegetacyjnego w rejonie Bydgoszczy. Agro-climatological assessment of the growing season rainfall in the Bydgoszcz region. Infrastructure and Ecology of Rural Areas 2-3. Internet: http://dx.medra.org/10.14597/infraeco.2014.2.2.047 (15.12. 2020).

Zeyaeyan, S., Fattahi, E., Ranjbar, A., Vazifedoust, M. 2017: Classification of rainfall warnings based on the TOPSIS method. Climate 5-2. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5020033

Ziernicka-Wojtaszek A., Zawora T. 2008: Regionalizacja termiczno-opadowa Polski w okresie globalnego ocieplenia. Acta Agrophysica 11-3. Internet: http://www.acta-agrophysica.org/Thermal-precipitation-regionalisation-of-poland-during-the-global-warming-period,107594,0,2.html (21. 01. 2021).

Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, A., Kopcińska, J. 2020: Variation in atmospheric precipitation in Poland in the years 2001–2018. Atmosphere 11-8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080794

Żmudzka, E. 2009: Współczesne zmiany klimatu Polski. Acta Agrophysica 13-2. Internet: http://www.old.acta-agrophysica.org/artykuly/acta_agrophysica/ActaAgr_167_2009_13_2_555.pdf (21. 01. 2021).

Published
2021-10-27
How to Cite
1.
Kalbarczyk R, KalbarczykE. Precipitation variability, trends and regions in Poland: Temporal and spatial distribution in the years 1951–2018. AGS [Internet]. 2021Oct.27 [cited 2021Nov.30];61(2):41-. Available from: https://ojs.zrc-sazu.si/ags/article/view/8846