Nova metodologija za oceno časovnih sprememb vrstne sestave polnaravnih suhih travišč na osnovi terenskih podatkov s severnih Apeninov
Ključne besede:
diagnostične vrste, Habitatna direktiva, krajinska metrika, orhideje, regresijska drevesa, študija s ponovnim obiskom, dinamika vegetacije.Povzetek
Gospodarjenje s pol naravnimi travišči se v Evropi spreminja po obsegu in po intenzivnosti. Spremembe predstavljajo resno grožnjo enim vrstno najbolj bogatih habitatov v Evropi, zato je potrebno ocenjevati spremembe v vrstni sestavi z znanstveno metodo. Opisujemo novo metodologijo, ki stremi h (i) kvantifikaciji časovnih sprememb v vrstni sestavi pol naravnih travišč ter (ii) opredelitvi dejavnikov okolja in gospodarjenja, ki vodijo v spremembe. Naš pristop temelji na diakronični analizi historičnih fitocenoloških podatkov v povezavi z natančnimi vegetacijskimi kartami. Za opis in preverjanje metodologije smo leta 2013 ponovno obiskali 24 starejših ploskev travišč z vrsto Bromus erectus, mi smo jih prvič vzorčili leta 1982. Za izbiro novih vzorčnih mest smo kombinirali topografske in tipološke informacije, ki so na voljo za starejše ploskve, s prostorskimi informacijami na povezani karti. Stopnjo sprememb vrstne sestave smo izračunali z ordinacijskimi metodami; uporabili smo multivariatne razdalje v regresijski analizi za opredelitev okoljskih dejavnikov odgovornih za vzorec sprememb vrstne sestave. Z našim primerom smo pokazali, da se je vrstna sestava v zadnjih 30 letih značilno spremenila, na vzorec sprememb pa sta bistveno vplivala topografija in krajinska sestava.
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