Influence of meteorological variables to water quality in five lakes over the Aggtelek (Hungary) and Slovak karst regions – a case study

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to analyse the effect of tendencies in the meteorological variables on the water quality on the example of five lakes in the Aggtelek and Slovak karst. The data set used eleven water quality parameters (oxygen saturation, chemical oxygen demand, nitrate, nitrite, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, ammonium, pH, conductivity, iron, manganese), as well as daily data of six climatic parameters from the period 2008-2010. A cluster analysis is performed in order to determine the climate impact on the water quality parameters. Furthermore, factor analysis with special transformation, as a novelty in the study, is implemented to find out the weight of the climate parameters as explanatory variables and hence their rank of importance in forming the given water quality parameter as an influencing variable. The study introduces a methodology for analysing the climate impact on the water quality parameters. In order to reduce the number of the water quality parameters, a so called two-stage factor analysis was performed, which is a novel procedure. Application of the two-stage factor analysis involves both benefits and disadvantages. Its benefit is that it substantially reduces the number of resultant variables. In this way, information loss of the retained factors is around 20%. As a result, we received that both positive and negative extreme values of water quality parameters can be associated with weak or breaking-up warm fronts passing through over the region. On the contrary, the role of anticyclones or anticyclone ridge weather situations is supposed to be irrelevant. Unstable and extreme weather conditions act in the direction of breaking up the balance that would support the good water quality. This process does not benefit the water use nor the sensitive karst hydrogeological system.