Time series analysis, modelling and assessment of optimal exploitation of the Nemanja karst springs, Serbia

Abstract

The time series analysis was applied in the case-study of a karst aquifer in Serbia in order to study its functioning, hydrody­namic behavior and hydraulic properties. Focusing on the defi­nition of groundwater budget, due to very complex function­ing of karst systems the correlation and spectral analyses were used to emphasize the importance of transforming the input data – precipitation to effective infiltration. The characteriza­tion of karst aquifer was further improved by separating the output component – discharge to base-flow and fast-flow com­ponents. Additionally, the importance of these transformations was proved in application of the regression model for the sim­ulation of discharges based on the effective infiltration func­tions. A recharge-discharge model was applied in accordance withthe active groundwater management, defining optimal “exploitable” regimes, whichincluded the analyses of storage changes in karst water reservoirs under natural conditions, and calculation of the potential exploitation conditions.