Temperature-related Mortality in Belgrade in the Period 1888–2008

Branislav S. Djurdjev, Daniela Arsenović, Stevan Savić

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3986/AGS52205


The paper uses air temperature and crude death rate data from Belgrade in the period from 1888 to 2008, in order to show expected correlation. Basic statistical analysis demonstrates statistically significant correlation values between these parameters. The starting assumption was that people in earlier times were more sensitive to extreme cold temperatures, particularly in the winter season. Statistical results confirm previous mentioned assumptionparticularly in the period before the First World War.Further analysis showed that in the last twenty years, air temperatures and death rates have opposite correlation outcomes. Statistical analysis points out that, in the last twenty years, death rates are increasing more rapidly in the summer season, due to increasing frequencies of extreme air temperature events.


geography; crude death rate; air temperature; seasonal impact; Belgrade; Serbia

Full Text:



Analitis, A., Katsouyanni, K., Biggeri, A., Baccini, M., Forsberg, B., Bisanti, L., Kirchmayer, U., Ballester, F., Cadum, E., Goodman, P. G., Hojs, A, Sunyer, J., Tiittanen, P., Michelozzi, P. 2008: Effects of Cold Weather on Mortality: Results from 15 European Cities Within the PHEWE Project. American Journal of Epidemiology 168-12. Philadelphia. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwn266

Anđelković, G. 2007: Temperaturne prilike u julu 2007. godine kao ekstremna klimatska pojava u Srbiji. Glasnik Srpskog geografskog društva 87-2. Beograd. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/GSGD0702051A

Baccini, M., Biggeri, A., Accetta, G., Kosatsky, T., Katsouyanni, K., Analitis, A., Anderson, H. R., Bisanti, L., D'Ippoliti, D., Danova, J., Forsberg, B., Medina, S., Paldy, A., Rabczenko, D., Schindler, C., Michelozzi, P. 2008: Heat effects on mortality in 15 European Cities. Epidemiology 19-5. Philadelphia. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e318176bfcd

Bom van Der, J. G., De Maat, M. P., Bots, M. L., Hofman, A., Kluft, C., Grobbee, D. E. 1997: Seasonal variation in fibrinogen in the Rotterdam Study. Thromb Haemost 78. Chapell Hill.

Carson, C., Hajat, S., Armstrong, B., Wilkinson, P. 2006: Declining Vulnerability to Temperature-related Mortality in London over the 20th Century. American Journal of Epidemiology 164-1. Cary. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwj147

Curriero, F., Heiner, K., Samet, J., Zeger, S., Strug, L., Patz, J. 2002: Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States. American journal of epidemiology 155-1. Cary. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/155.1.80

Donaldson, G. C., Keatinge, W. R., Näyhä, S. 2003: Changes in summer temperature and heat-related mortality since 1971 in North Carolina, South Finland and Southeast England. Environmental research 91-1. San Diego. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0013-9351(02)00002-6

Ekamper, P., Van, Poppel. F., Van Duin, C., Garssen, J. 2009: 150 Years of temperature-related excess mortality in the Netherlands. Demographic Research 21-14. Rostock. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2009.21.14

Hajat, S., O’Connor, M., Kosatsky, T. 2010: Health Effects of Hot Weather: from Awareness of Risk Factors to Effective Health Protection. Lancet 375-9717. London. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61711-6

Hajat, S., Kovats, R. S., Lachowycz, K. 2007: Heat-related and Cold-related Deaths in England and Wales: who is at Risk? Occupational and Environmental Medicine 64-2. London. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/oem.2006.029017

Huynen, M., Martens, P., Schram, D., Weijenberg, M., Kunst, A. 2001: The Impact of Heat Waves on Cold Spells on Mortality Rates in the Dutch Population. Environmental Health Perspectives 109-5. Pittsburgh.

Keatinge, W. R., Donaldson, G. C. 2004: The Impact of Global Warming on Health and Mortality. Southern Medical Journal 97-11. Birmingham.

Kunst, A. E., Looman, C. W. N., Mackenbach, J.P. 1991: The decline in winter excess mortality in The Netherlands. International Journal of Epidemiology 20 (4). Oxford. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/20.4.971

Lerchl, A. 1998: Changes in the seasonality of mortality in Germany from 1946 to 1995: the role of temperature. International Journal of Biometeorology 42-2. Heidelberg. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s004840050089

Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M., Wanner, H. 2004: European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, trends, and Extremes Since 1500. Science 303. Washington. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1093877

McMichael, A., Wilkinson, P., Kovats, S., Pattenden, S., Hajat, S., Armstrong, B., et al. 2008: International Study of Temperature, Heat, and Urban Mortality: the ‘ISOTHURM’ project. International Journal of Epidemiology 37-5. Oxford. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyn086

Pattenden, S., Nikiforov, B., & Armstrong, B.G. 2003: Mortality and Temperature in Sofia and London. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 57-8. London.

Sartor, F., Snacken, R., Demuth, C., &Walckiers, D. 1995: Temperature, ambient ozone levels, and mortality during summer 1995, in Belgium. Environmental Research 70-2. San Diego. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/enrs.1995.1054

Unkašević, M., & Tošić, I. 2009: Heat waves in Belgrade and Niš. Geographica Pannonica 13-1. Novi Sad.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3986/AGS52205

© Acta geographica Slovenica | P. B. 306, SI-1001 Ljubljana, Slovenia | ags@zrc-sazu.si | tel: +386 1 470 63 57